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Friday, May 09, 2008

Demographic Winter: coming soon to a country near you

Trailer for the DVD Demographic Winter

What is "demographic winter?" If you haven't heard this buzzword yet you will shortly. It refers to the belief that we are about to experience the opposite of a "population bomb." Abortion, failure to reproduce, denigration of traditional families and other factors are working to depopulate developed societies around the globe. In the short run, this will have the noticeable effect of Islamicizing regions such as Western Europe, a trend most ably discussed by political writer Mark Steyn in his bestseller America Alone. In the long term, even nations such as China will be affected by a failure to, well, breed at the "replacement rate" of 2.1 children per woman.

Worldwide, birthrates have been halved in the past 50 years. There are now 59 nations, with 44% of the world’s population, with below-replacement fertility

Sometime in this century, the world’s population will begin to decline. At a certain point, the decline will become rapid. We may even reach population free-fall in our lifetimes.

For some countries, population decline is already a reality. Russia is losing three-quarters-of-a-million people a year. Its population (currently 145 million) is expected to fall by one-third by 2050....

Of the 10 countries with the lowest birthrates, 9 are in Europe. Overall, the European fertility rate is 1.3, well below replacement level (2.1). No European nation has a replacement-level birthrate.

Italy’s fertility rate is 1.2. Spain’s is 1.1. That means in the not-too-distant future, absent massive immigration, these countries will lose half of their people in every generation.

Russia’s birthrate fell from 2.4 in 1990 to 1.17 today – a decline of more than 50% in less than 20 years. Each year, there are more abortions than live births in the Russian Federation.

These aren't even the scariest parts of the Demographic Winter movie website. Check it out here.

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